Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
